Recently a reader asked me why I focus on polls rather than political betting markets for insights into the race and whether I thought polls were more reliable. I was honestly baffled by the question.

Political betting markets have recently put the odds that Vice President Kamala Harris will win the presidency as higher than incumbent Joe Biden. Here is what that means and the context. Wednesday ...

If you’ve followed my thinking on this you know I’ve long had a pretty low opinion of political betting markets. Their user base tends to lean right, with the built-in bias you would expect that to ...