Inflation expectations among businesses can affect how they set current prices. Firms’ expectations diverged from those of ...

Thomas M. Mertens, senior vice president and associate director of research at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, shared views on the current economy and the outlook from the Economic Research ...

Firm heterogeneity in financial constraints is a quantitatively important driver of how monetary policy transmits to inflation. Using detailed microdata on ...

Nearly 40% of small business respondents to the 2024 SBCS reported using or planning to use artificial intelligence (AI), with applications spanning productivity, marketing, writing, visual design, ...

Measures of beliefs, sentiment, and narratives often send recession signals that differ from those in hard data, defined as conventional economic and ...

To better understand the possible impacts of artificial intelligence (AI) on the economy, the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco published the 2025 research brief “On-the-Job Exposure to AI Among ...

Economic activity in the Twelfth District was somewhat muted but largely stable during the mid-May through June reporting period. Employment levels were largely steady, with employers generally ...

Firms frequently revise not only their expectations, but also how uncertain they feel about those expectations. Using the U.S. Survey of Business Uncertainty, we study perceived uncertainty about ...