Measures of beliefs, sentiment, and narratives often send recession signals that differ from those in hard data, defined as ...

Firm heterogeneity in financial constraints is a quantitatively important driver of how monetary policy transmits to ...

Thomas M. Mertens, senior vice president and associate director of research at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, ...

Nearly 40% of small business respondents to the 2024 SBCS reported using or planning to use artificial intelligence (AI), ...

Economic activity in the Twelfth District was somewhat muted but largely stable during the mid-May through June reporting ...

Inflation expectations among businesses can affect how they set current prices. Firms’ expectations diverged from those of ...

Labor productivity gains over the past three years helped the U.S. economy expand steadily, even with near-zero employment growth. Combined with substantially increased business investment in ...

U.S. business spending related to artificial intelligence (AI) grew substantially in 2025 among publicly traded firms, which account for the bulk of overall investment. Analyzing sentiment data from ...

Adam Shapiro, vice president at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, shared views on the current economy and the outlook from the Economic Research Department as of April 16, 2026. Oil markets ...

Tariffs are usually applied to imported goods—but in an interconnected economy, their effects can be felt in the prices of other goods and services. Estimates using data across multiple advanced ...

Since becoming widely commercially available in fall 2022, adoption of generative artificial intelligence in U.S. businesses has grown rapidly. Recent surveys suggest substantial year-over-year ...

Understanding housing demand dynamics through two indicators, income growth and population growth, provides important insights into housing affordability. Research shows that average U.S. income ...