We analyze how tariff uncertainty affects exchange rates, motivated by the U.S. dollar’s depreciation after the 2025 tariff announcements. Standard macro-trade models predict that unilateral tariffs ...

In research conducted in collaboration with Arkey Barnett at the University of Michigan and Meghan Beal at the National Sheriffs’ Association, we investigate the effects of innovative investments in ...

Rising concern over the impact of Chinese industrial policy has led to severe trade tensions between China and some of its major trading partners. In recent years, foreign criticism has increasingly ...

The NBER has awarded four Robert Summers fellowships that enable economic statisticians to attend the Conference on Research in Income and Wealth (CRIW) meeting on July 20–21, 2026, in Cambridge, MA.

Labor market tightness following the height of the Covid-19 pandemic led to an unexpected compression in the US wage distribution that reflects, in part, an increase in labor market competition. Rapid ...

Christian Valencia received his Ph.D. in Agricultural and Applied Economics from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. His research sits at the intersection of labor and agricultural ...

We study human capital in venture capital (VC) using a new dataset covering over 100,000 professionals affiliated with U.S. VC firms. Investment success is extremely concentrated: fewer than 40% of ...

We develop a simple and intuitive Pigouvian perspective on optimal trade policy. Our approach unifies a wide range of rationales for taxing trade, from the classical optimal tariff argument to ...

This paper uses administrative data to analyze wealth flows from Norway to offshore tax havens before and after a major improvement of global financial transparency: automatic exchange of bank account ...

We provide descriptive evidence on women's experiences in platform-based driving and delivery work using survey and administrative data from India and Indonesia. Partnering with major two-wheeler ...

We revisit the classic identification problem of separating supply and demand for a homogeneous good using data from multiple markets. We allow markets to be heterogeneous according to unobservables, ...

Recently the global economy has experienced several major shocks yet EMEs have been remarkably resilient. Some of this improved performance can be attributed to prudent policies and stronger economic ...