This data series is part of the Center for Monetary Research. Treasury Yield Skewness is a daily indicator measuring the risks to the future outlook for interest rates, based on prices of Treasury ...

Measures of beliefs, sentiment, and narratives often send recession signals that differ from those in hard data, defined as ...

Firm heterogeneity in financial constraints is a quantitatively important driver of how monetary policy transmits to ...

Thomas M. Mertens, senior vice president and associate director of research at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, ...

Nearly 40% of small business respondents to the 2024 SBCS reported using or planning to use artificial intelligence (AI), ...

Economic activity in the Twelfth District was somewhat muted but largely stable during the mid-May through June reporting ...

We recently collaborated with other researchers and central banks to ask senior business executives about AI in their own firms. Our study, issued in February, revealed that AI adoption is already ...

I develop a framework analyzing how artificial intelligence (AI) reshapes monetary policy through three interrelated channels: cyclical transmission, structural transition, and financial stability. In ...

Inflation expectations among businesses can affect how they set current prices. Firms’ expectations diverged from those of ...

Firms frequently revise not only their expectations, but also how uncertain they feel about those expectations. Using the U.S. Survey of Business Uncertainty, we study perceived uncertainty about ...

We measure how workers use genAI in their jobs using a nationally representative survey that links genAI use to detailed tasks. GenAI currently assists a broad range of work, with at least one in five ...

How can Federal Reserve data tools inform local practice? In February’s San Joaquin Valley Financial Empowerment convening—which brought together local practitioners, state agencies, and small ...